Polling day · Thursday, 18 June 2026
Makerfield by-election 1.4pp toss-up between Reform UK and Labour. Well inside the model's confidence interval.
Central forecast, projected vote share
Reform UK 41.1%
Labour 39.8%
Reform UK 41.1% Robert Kenyon Labour 39.8% Andy Burnham Conservative 7.0% Green Party 5.9% Lib Dem 2.9% Restore 1.8% Rebecca Shepherd Other 1.5% If a UK general election were held today
Reform UK projected to win 324 of 650 seats
All 650 UK parliamentary constituencies, refreshed from the latest
named-pollster Westminster polling average. A majority needs 326 seats.
Reform UK is 2 seats short of an overall majority.
Projected House of Commons composition shown as a horseshoe of seats coloured by party. 326-seat majority
Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin SDLP SDLP Workers Party Workers Party Workers Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Speaker Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Independent Alliance UUP Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Lib Dem Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative Conservative TUV DUP DUP DUP DUP DUP Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK SNP 35 Labour 131 Lib Dem 80 Conservative 41 Reform UK 324 Other 39 Reform UK 324 seats. 2 short of an overall majority.
National vote share, current Westminster polling
Wikipedia 14-day rolling average + manual Restore Britain overlay (most pollsters embed Restore inside the
"Others" cell rather than breaking it out separately).
See every constituency →
· Look up my constituency →
Past elections
Every prediction we've published, scored against the actual count 55.2% winners called correctly on 7 May 2026. Our locked, sha256-witnessed forecast across 154 councils.
7.38pp average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual count, per party
78% winners called correctly when we replayed the same general-election model on the 2024 result
Each constituency and council page carries its own forecast-vs-actual record so you can see exactly how the model behaved for that place , not just on average.
All past predictions →
· 2024 general election backtest →
· 2024 local backtest →
What you can do here
Built for voters, journalists, and campaigners alike. Find your constituency or ward Type a UK postcode, town, or council. We'll show your specific contest: candidates, parties, our prediction, and our track record for that place.
Find my ward →
Every council, every cycle The full list of every UK council with its May 7 result, who controls it now, and when it next votes. Two-tier councils awaiting Local Government Reorganisation are marked TBC .
All councils →
Check our working Every forecast carries the model steps that produced it. The full method, every backtest, the source data, and open downloads sit on the about page .